,,,,,,,. - -, -,, - 60 - - - - -, -,. -,,,,, .-, 30, - 60, EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY USDCAD, AUDUSD,. - -, EUR, USD .-,, Myfxbook,,, 50.-,,,. - - 5, -.,, Myfxbook -. , Investimentos -,. - benzóico. , Investing -,.Myfxbook 12 2017. Obrigado pelo feedback, irá encaminhá-lo para a equipe de desenvolvimento. 11 2017. ,,. Rabo de Estudantes 1 2016. ,.Myfxbook 4 2016. Por favor, note que todos os nossos serviços são gratuitos e, a fim de continuar a fornecer aos nossos usuários o melhor serviço e experiência de uso temos adicionado anúncios para o aplicativo Por favor, note que você pode remover os anúncios através da compra de uma assinatura Se você tiver alguma dúvida ou precisar de alguma informação entre em contato conosco em. 2 2016. , Web. Myfxbook 2 2016. Por favor, note que todos os nossos serviços são gratuitos e, a fim de continuar a fornecer aos nossos usuários o melhor serviço e experiência de uso temos adicionado anúncios para o aplicativo Por favor, note que você pode remover os anúncios comprando um Assinatura Se você tiver alguma dúvida ou precisar de alguma informação entre em contato conosco em. 10 2017. Muito ruim. Myfxbook 11 2017.Por favor, note que você pode definir notificações personalizadas, tocando no ícone de campainha na seção de calendário I ll encaminhar o seu feedback para a equipe dev Se você tiver alguma dúvida não hesite em contactar-nos em. 27 2017. , 70, 3 50.Myfxbook 29 2017. Obrigado pelo feedback, encaminhá-lo-á à equipe do dev Se você tem quaisquer perguntas satisfazem sentem livres contatar-nos em. 9 2016. ,.Myfxbook 10 2016. Obrigado pela sua sugestão, vou encaminhá-lo para a equipe de desenvolvimento. 23 2016. 20 20,.Sergey Lukichev 26 2017. 2. 18, 2017..Georg Ferdinand 27 2016..Myfxbook 1 2016. Por favor, note que todos os nossos serviços são gratuitos e para continuar a fornecer aos nossos usuários o melhor serviço e experiência de uso que adicionamos anúncios para o aplicativo Por favor, note que você pode remover os anúncios através da compra de uma assinatura Se você Tem alguma dúvida ou precisa de alguma informação, por favor contacte-nos em. 8 2016. 4, 1400.Myfxbook 9 2016. Obrigado pelo feedback, enviará para o dev team.28 2016. - benzóico. 2 2016. ,.Myfxbook 8 2016. Por favor, note que todos os nossos serviços são gratuitos e, a fim de continuar a fornecer aos nossos usuários o melhor serviço e experiência de uso temos adicionado anúncios para o aplicativo Por favor, note que você pode remover os anúncios através da compra de um Assinatura Se você tiver alguma dúvida ou precisar de alguma informação entre em contato conosco em. Vladimir 29 2016..forex pode resolver problema de desemprego. Geral Forex Conversation. forex é muito útil e rentável não têm qualquer trabalho ou negócio e não pode começar o trabalho, eles podem começar o negócio de forex para ganhar pode trabalhar em forex por tempo parcial ou cheio nós fazemos negócios forex profissionalmente , Podemos tornar-se alguns países lei não suportam negócios forex, forex pode resolver nosso país de desemprego tem problema de desemprego e acredito que forex é uma boa maneira de resolver você concorda com me. Date 26 de janeiro de 2013.Related messages. I pensar mais difícil O problema é quando o mercado vai contra nós e fiz a análise do mercado de forma incorreta Então eu uso scalping estratégia para resolver o problema e recuperar a perda de dinheiro original thread here. Some ou comerciante muitos ainda podem tratar forex como trabalho a tempo parcial, Renda e salário ou ganhando de seu trabalho principal como o apoio financeiro para finalidades diárias, forex é arriscado, ajudará a reduzir o desemprego se o comerciante que tem a negociação boa da habilidade, mas se mais frouxo será bec. Fore X é um lugar muito bom ganhando no mundo a pessoa leva negócios Forex e ganhar dinheiro enorme neste mercado posso dizer Forex renda resolver o nosso econômico você agree. Forex pode resolver o problema do desemprego Você pode ganhar dinheiro por Forex trading se você tem algo Investir Para começar 500 USD é suficiente para ganhar um bom lucro por mês, se você sabe como o comércio Assim, o comércio Forex e fazer um futuro melhor e primeiro não se esqueça de aprender primeiro Desemprego crise i. economic é um dos maiores problemas da Mundo no contexto de hoje, então você acha que esse problema vai ser resolvido através de forex se sim, então como é possível e que os países pobres devem fazer para motivar as pessoas para o negócio forex Tweet. i acho que o negócio forex é o caminho certo Para remover o problema de desemprego no problema de desemprego de dia está aumentando rapidamente eu acho que forex pode ajudar a remover o problema de desemprego significativamente o que é o seu pensamento. Home pleno emprego e preço Stability. Full Emprego E P Em outras palavras, as economias reais que não usam dinheiro e dinheiro contratos de trabalho para organizar a produção, por exemplo, o feudalismo, as economias de escravos, South Sea Islanders descobriu que o desemprego involuntário só está associado com economias contratuais que usam dinheiro. Por Margaret Meed, etc podem possuir importantes não-linearidades e até mesmo um futuro incerto, mas nunca há um importante problema de desemprego involuntário escravos são sempre plenamente empregados, bem como são servos no feudalismo deve-se notar que rebanhos de animais, escolas de peixes, etc organizar Juntos para resolver os problemas econômicos do que para quem sem usar dinheiro, contratos ou mercados, esses animais ainda enfrentam complexos problemas não-lineares em sua busca de alimentos e interação com outros rebanhos ainda animais nunca sofrem de desemprego involuntário. Professor Paul Davidson University of Tennessee O atual sistema monetário pode sustentar tanto o pleno emprego quanto a estabilidade A curto e longo prazo Será demonstrado que: 1. O desemprego equivale a um déficit orçamentário federal muito pequeno e.2 O valor de uma moeda é determinado pelos preços pagos por esse governo. O governo adotou dois objetivos econômicos primários Estabilidade de preços e pleno emprego. Ironicamente, optou-se por uma política monetária e fiscal que utiliza o excesso de capacidade, incluindo o desemprego, para manter a estabilidade de preços, evitando a possibilidade de realização simultânea de ambos os objectivos. O governo assume o papel de empregador de última instância ELR, eliminando o desemprego involuntário, ea estabilidade de preços é mantida pelo governo restringir o preço que paga para o pool de mão-de-obra complementar proposta ELR. O empregador do Last Resort ELR Alternative. The Governo dos EUA pode prosseguir Diretamente ao desemprego zero, oferecendo um emprego de serviço público para quem quer um como um complemento para o curre Além disso, ao fixar o salário pago ao abrigo deste programa ELR a um nível que não perturbe os mercados de trabalho existentes, ou seja, um nível salarial próximo do salário mínimo existente, pode-se esperar uma estabilidade substancial dos preços. O programa ELR permite a eliminação de muitos Os pagamentos de bem-estar do governo existentes para qualquer pessoa não especificamente alvo de isenção, como desejado pelo eleitorado Legislação salário mínimo não seria mais necessário O trabalho seria bem-vinda a rede de segurança de um emprego garantido, e as empresas reconheceriam o benefício de um pool de mão-de-obra disponível que poderia Além disso, o emprego de serviço público garantido seria uma influência anticíclica, aumentando automaticamente o emprego e as despesas governamentais à medida que os empregos fossem perdidos no setor privado e diminuindo os empregos e os gastos do governo como O setor privado expandiu. Esta proposta de ELR em um nível se assemelha workfare, que foi rejeitado pelo Congresso, No entanto, ao contrário desta proposta ELR, os programas estaduais podem estar servindo para criar uma nova classe de sub-salário mínimo empregados que estão substituindo regular funcionários públicos. A proposta ELR também tem características semelhantes à Política de compensação de desemprego federal atual Há, no entanto, diferenças significativas como o desemprego é uma compensação é o pagamento por não trabalhar, 2 temporário, 3 não cobre todos, e 4 é menor que o salário proposto ELR. Será demonstrado que esta política ELR estabelece estabilidade de preços não totalmente diferente de muitas políticas de renda propostas foram concebidos para fazer No entanto, um programa ELR, no entanto, enfrentam uma forte oposição, pois permite que o déficit orçamentário federal para flutuar, com uma alta probabilidade de permanente E déficits crescentes. Por exemplo, usando estimativas aproximadas, se o governo empregasse 8 milhões de novos funcionários públicos em, digamos, 12.500 por ano, que wo Seria uma nova despesa de 100 bilhões. Subtraia dessa parte de aproximadamente 50 bilhões atualmente gastos em compensação de desemprego, 15 bilhões gastos em AFDC e mais de 20 bilhões gastos em cupões de alimentação que podem ser reduzidos, ea rede pode ser um adicional de 50 Bilhões de gastos anuais déficit Portanto, este estudo vai primeiro incidir sobre por que o medo de déficits por si só é injustificado. Taxar, gastar e contrair empréstimos com uma moeda não conversível. O dólar dos EUA não é legalmente convertível em qualquer coisa pelo governo sobre a demanda No entanto, é designado pelo governo como o único meio de descarregar as obrigações fiscais federais. Os passivos fiscais são uma dívida contínua que o setor privado deve ao governo e eles criam uma necessidade contínua de dólares. O setor privado obtém os dólares necessários principalmente como pagamento por A transferência de bens e serviços reais para o governo, e é o gasto do governo ou de empréstimos que fornece os dólares necessários para pagar impostos Para efeitos deste Por exemplo, quando o banco central compra moeda estrangeira, é o mesmo, para a análise do fluxo de caixa, como o tesouro que compra o equipamento militar Isto é consultado geralmente como a exibição do Tesouraria E o banco central numa base consolidada. O imperativo da tributação é criar vendedores de bens e serviços reais dispostos a trocá-los pela unidade de conta selecionada pelo governo Dólar denominado função de passivos fiscais para criar vendedores de bens e serviços reais que devem ter Dólares para extinguir suas obrigações tributárias Aumentar a receita, por si só, não tem nenhuma importância para o governo, pois os dólares não são um recurso limitado do governo, mas um passivo ou crédito fiscal que pode ser emitido à vontade Não limita o que é capaz de comprar O poder de compra do governo é limitado apenas pelo que é oferecido para a venda em troca de dollars. Adam Smith página 312, edição de Cannan reconheceu esta vista de Chartalist. Um príncipe, que deveria decretar que uma determinada proporção de seus impostos deve ser pagado em um papel moeda de um certo tipo, poderia desse modo dar um certo valor a este dinheiro de papel mesmo que o termo de seu A liberação final eo resgate deveriam depender completamente da vontade do príncipe. O resumo de Canan deste parágrafo lê. A exigência de que certos impostos devem ser pagos, em particular, papel-moeda poderia dar a esse papel um certo valor, mesmo que fosse irremediável. Bem compreendida pelos governadores coloniais britânicos. Naquelas partes de África onde a terra estava ainda nas mãos africanas, os governos coloniais forçaram os africanos para produzir culturas de dinheiro não importa como baixos os preços eram a política favorita era impostos Os impostos de dinheiro foram introduzidos em artigos numerosos gado, Terra, casas e as próprias pessoas. Dinheiro para pagar impostos foi obtido através do cultivo de colheitas ou trabalhando em fazendas européias ou em suas minas Rodney, 1972, p. John Maynard Keynes escreveu e, além disso, o Estado reivindica o direito que coisa corresponde ao que descarrega obrigações. Há pouca evidência de que esta compreensão, uma vez comum, do dinheiro não conversível Sobreviveram à era do dinheiro convertível da mercadoria. Títulos de tesouraria e manutenção de taxa de interesse. No sistema bancário comercial os empréstimos críam depósitos como uma entrada de contabilidade As contas de reserva de banco comerciais no fed podem ser pensadas como non-interest que rolam contas correntes no Fed, Os requisitos de reserva podem ser considerados como requisitos de saldo mínimo Os saldos de reserva são ativos do banco membro e passivos bancários são ativos do Fed. O livro consolidado para todo o sistema bancário está sempre em equilíbrio, com exceção de alguns fatores operacionais, Tais como cheques no processo de compensação Quando qualquer banco transfere dinheiro para outro banco, os depósitos do primeiro banco são reduzidos eo depo do segundo banco Senta-se aumentado Depósitos totais no sistema bancário comercial permanecem inalterados. Bancos A e B estão em equilíbrio Eles têm cada originou 100 em empréstimos e creditou os rendimentos para a conta bancária do mutuário. A bancária A perdeu seu depósito para Banco B O banco Sistema no agregado está ainda no contrapeso, embora a conta de reserva do banco A no fed for overdrawn por 100 ea conta de reserva do banco B s tem um contrapeso positivo de 100 Neste caso, o banco A pode pedir do banco B é possível restaurar o contrapeso Sem intervenção do Fed. Se, no entanto, o banco comercial deposita um cheque para o Tesouro dos Estados Unidos, o Fed debita a conta de reserva do Banco A e credita a conta do Tesouro nos depósitos bancários do Federal Reserve O sistema bancário é reduzido enquanto os empréstimos totais permanecem inalterados. A Banca A eo B estão em equilíbrio Eles têm cada um originado 100 em empréstimos e creditado os rendimentos para a conta bancária do mutuário. A conta do Tesouro no Federal Reserve O Fed debita a conta de reserva do Banco A e credita a conta do Tesouro no Fed O sistema bancário tem agora um descoberto no Fed, conhecido como uma deficiência de reserva, de 100. Neste caso, A conta de reserva do Banco está descoberta Se o Banco A tomar emprestado do Banco B, a transferência da deficiência para o Banco B e a conta de reserva do Banco B está descoberta Se um dos bancos originar um novo empréstimo e criar um novo depósito, os ativos e passivos aumentarão igualmente, O tamanho da deficiência inalterada nem o reembolso dos empréstimos existentes modificar a deficiência. Para todos os efeitos práticos, uma deficiência de todo o sistema bancário comercial só pode ser atenuada por uma transferência de fundos do Fed para a conta de reserva de um membro comercial Banco Quando o Fed créditos conta bancária de um banco membro e debita sua própria conta, reservas totais no sistema bancário comercial são aumentadas Neste caso simples, se o Federal Reserve empréstimos 100 volta Banco A, o sistema bancário recupera o equilíbrio Começando com a condição de deficiência. O Fed substitui um descoberto com um empréstimo. Mesmo se o Banco A não cobrir a deficiência, o Fed registrará o descoberto como um empréstimo e cobrar uma penalidade apropriada. , Uma deficiência é sempre coberto por um empréstimo do Fed A variável é a taxa, e possivelmente a garantia exigida pelo Fed para garantir o empréstimo obrigatório. Se o gasto do governo exceder as receitas fiscais, há um déficit orçamentário como definido para fins contabilísticos Governo Os gastos são geralmente feitos através de um crédito à conta de reserva de um banco comercial no Fed e um débito de compensação da conta do Tesouro no Fed. O crédito à conta de reserva do banco membro é tudo o que afeta o setor privado, As transações entre o Fed ea conta do Tesouro no Fed estão inteiramente fora do sistema bancário comercial e estão sendo compensadas entradas no balanço patrimonial consolidado do Tesouro Ry eo Fed. Vamos assumir o sistema bancário comercial está em equilíbrio com todos os bancos satisfeitos com seus saldos atuais de reserva como na figura 4.A 100 pagamento do Tesouro ao cliente do Banco B s é facilitado pelo Fed debitando o Tesouro s Fed Conta e creditando a conta de reserva do Banco B. Sendo que para simplificar não há exigências de reservas, isso cria um desequilíbrio no sistema bancário comercial conhecido como um excesso de reserva de todo o sistema. Como as contas de reserva não são remuneradas, um banco com excesso de reserva tentará Para emprestar esses fundos a outro banco Sem outros bancos em déficit no Fed, a taxa overnight, conhecida como a taxa de fed funds, iria cair para 0 bid Os bancos não estariam dispostos a pagar juros para atrair depósitos overnight que don t ganhar juros. As reservas em excesso têm valor se puderem ser utilizadas para reembolsar empréstimos do Fed, comprar novos títulos do Tesouro do Tesouro ou comprar títulos do Tesouro existentes a partir da corrente do Fed Carteira Todos estes constituem a transferência de fundos para o Fed Apenas uma transferência de fundos do sistema bancário comercial para o Fed pode diminuir um excesso de reserva. Compras e vendas de títulos pelo Fed são chamadas de operações de mercado aberto O procedimento operacional normal é para Os fatores operacionais incluem quaisquer transferências entre os bancos comerciais e o Fed, e outros itens que efetuam o saldo da reserva, incluindo mudanças em cheques não-liquidados, conhecidos como float, e mudanças na taxa de câmbio. A venda de títulos públicos emitidos pelo Tesouro afecta o sector privado exactamente da mesma forma que a venda de títulos pelo Fed a partir da sua carteira de títulos públicos existentes. Em ambos os casos, os fundos detidos pelo sector privado são transferidos para O Fed, os títulos do governo são creditados na conta de um banco membro, e um dreno de reserva igual ao produto de t Os resultados de venda de títulos. Começando com um excesso de reserva de 100. O Fed vende 100 títulos do Tesouro para o Banco B. Now, Banco B está disposto a pagar juros para manter seus depósitos, pois tem 100 de empréstimos com juros e 100 de juros tendo Tesouraria Um excesso ou escassez de reservas de todo o sistema só pode ser compensado por transferências de fundos de e para o Fed. Se o governo desejar manter uma taxa de juros entre 0 bid, a condição coincidente com um excesso de reserva e nenhuma oferta, a Devido a uma deficiência de reserva, deve compensar os fatores operacionais que causam essas condições. Alguns tipos de depósitos remunerados, como títulos do Tesouro, devem ser oferecidos no caso de um excesso de reserva. Os fundos são emprestados, diretamente incluindo descobertos ou compras no mercado aberto De títulos, no caso de uma deficiência de reserva. O Fed exige que os bancos membros mantenham saldos mínimos de reserva conhecidos como reservas obrigatórias. Estes não pagam juros e, portanto, Os bancos constituem um imposto bancário igual à taxa de juros que os bancos devem pagar ao Fed para contrair as reservas necessárias ou, de outro ponto de vista, os juros perdidos deixando dinheiro em contas de reserva que não geram juros. Atualmente, o Fed exige certa reserva mínima Requisitos Um excesso ou deficiência de reserva é definido como os bancos que têm um excesso de reservas acima do nível exigido ou um total de reservas abaixo do nível exigido. Técnicamente, o conceito de o Fed ser a única fonte de reservas líquidas segue diretamente de um Em que os requisitos de reserva são baseados em depósitos de um período de tempo anterior Uma vez que os requisitos de reserva são determinados por uma contagem de depósito de um período de tempo anterior, e as contas de reserva não pagam juros, a demanda por reservas é inelástica Créditos crescentes ou decrescentes, Depósitos, por exemplo, muda os requisitos de reservas futuras, mas não pode aliviar um desequilíbrio atual. Mesmo com um lead , As considerações práticas das inelasticidades de curto prazo das carteiras de empréstimos bancários resultam na mesma política do Fed de agir apenas defensivamente nos mercados monetários. Basil Moore, Horizontalists e Verticalists, 1988 Em outras palavras, o Fed pode Só reagem a desequilíbrios compensando-os O Fed não tem a opção de agir proativamente para adicionar ou drenar reservas para alterar diretamente a base monetária, a menos que esteja preparado para aceitar uma taxa de juros de 0 ou uma taxa de juros coincidente com uma deficiência de reserva Em um ou mais bancos membros No entanto, como uma deficiência de reserva é automaticamente reservado como um empréstimo, a única opção real do Fed é definir o preço de seu empréstimo de reservas necessárias para o sistema bancário comercial Esta é a base do conceito de dinheiro endógeno , O tema principal do pensamento monetário do borne Keynesian Pkmt, Cottrell, arquivos do pkt. Os títulos do tesouro, conseqüentemente, não funcionam para financiar despesas, mas para fornecer um dep Osit para depósitos de reserva excedentes sem juros A venda de títulos do Tesouro suporta a taxa de juros overnight determinada exogenamente pelos gastos do Déficit do Fed sem vendas de títulos do Tesouro ou o Fed criaria um excesso de reserva e resultaria em uma oferta de 0 para depósitos overnight A diferença econômica entre o governo emitindo títulos e não emitindo títulos é a diferença econômica entre uma taxa de juros de curto prazo de 0 ação e alguma taxa de juros de curto prazo positiva. Conseqüentemente, a oferta de dívida pública ao setor privado coincidente com despesa deficitária é uma necessidade Condição para o governo manter uma taxa de juros overnight positiva. A mesma lógica se aplica à impressão física do dinheiro Se a moeda for impressa e gasta pelo governo em excesso do desejo do setor privado de manter dinheiro, os detentores desse excesso de caixa Ser capaz de encontrar qualquer interesse pagando depósitos para seu dinheiro se o governo não vender se Ou que ofereçam outros juros que pagam depósitos. Uma taxa de interesse a curto prazo de 0 candidatura prevaleceria. Sem entender que os dólares usados para comprar títulos governamentais residiriam de outra maneira durante a noite em contas de reserva sem juros, temores tais como A possibilidade de o governo emitir novos títulos para substituir títulos em vencimento e não encontrar qualquer mutuários e crowding financeiro para fora a noção de que as vendas de títulos do governo usar dinheiro que estaria disponível para outros mutuários podem superfície e bloquear opções de política fiscal que incluem aumento do défice Gastos. Preços exógenos Um caso básico de monopólio. O sistema monetário atual é um monopólio clássico com a análise tradicional de monopólio suficiente para descrever todos os aspectos O governo é o emitente monopólio dos dólares necessários para o setor privado para pagar impostos Despesas do Tesouro E despesas do Fed quando realiza operações de mercado aberto de compensação, bem como Em todos os casos, o setor privado troca bens, bens ou serviços para o govt o fornecedor de monopólio, em troca de dólares necessários em última instância para o pagamento de impostos. O governo tem a As mesmas opções de preços com seu dinheiro de qualquer fornecedor de monopólio de uma necessidade absoluta. Uma analogia pode ser feita, por exemplo, com um monopólio de utilidade elétrica, embora os impostos dêem ao monopolista de moeda uma ferramenta para regular a demanda que o monopolista de eletricidade não tem. O preço do monopolista seu produto Existem duas opções. Posicione o preço, p, e deixe a quantidade, q, float, ou. Set q e deixe p float. A primeira opção é geralmente preferido, com um padrão ouro ou o programa proposto ELR dois exemplos De usar a primeira opção. No entanto, o governo está atualmente empregando a segunda opção Ele define um orçamento que determina q gastos, e permite que o mercado determinar p nível de preços como todas as compras são feitas no mercado Preços Se o monopolista decide fixar q, e deixar o mercado decidir p, deve restringir q para que a demanda exceda q, ou, para todos os efeitos práticos, o preço do seu produto cairá para 0 restrição governamental de q para controlar p significa Usando o desemprego contínuo eo excesso de capacidade para manter a estabilidade de preços Certamente isso nunca seria considerado uma opção viável na execução de um monopólio de utilidade elétrica, por exemplo. Um padrão ouro usa a alternativa do monopolista de estabelecer p, neste caso o preço do ouro, e Deixando q, a quantidade de gastos e empréstimos do governo, flutuam Impostos criar demanda para a moeda O governo define um preço em que ele vai comprar e vender ouro, e faz todas as outras compras a preços de mercado É então fiscalmente e monetariamente limitado a uma política Que gasta pouco o suficiente em itens não-ouro, e ajusta as taxas de juros, para manter um stock tampão desejado de ouro O governo deve limitar seus gastos não-ouro para menos do que a demanda para o curre A demanda excessiva pela moeda é evidenciada pelas vendas de ouro ao governo. Excesso de despesas não-ouro resulta em vendas de ouro ao setor privado. Enquanto o estoque regulador e a convertibilidade legal estiverem em vigor, o preço do ouro Definido pelo governo é o valor da moeda. Todos os outros preços flutuam a níveis de mercado e refletem o valor nominal em relação ao preço fixado do ouro. A teoria macroeconômica detalha a lógica, que conclui que um monopolista, controlando uma necessidade absoluta, Ou outro A proposta de ELR usa a opção de fixar um preço, o salário de ELR, pagar preços de mercado para outras compras, e deixar a quantidade total de despesa de governo ser determinada de mercado. Com um padrão de ouro, o ouro pode sempre ser considerado empregado inteiramente como o ouro Pode sempre ser vendido ao governo no preço fixo Da mesma forma, com uma política ELR, o trabalho pode sempre encontrar um comprador. A restrição do paradigma. Em nenhum caso o governo deve se financiar em d Ollars Gastos são limitados pelo que é oferecido para venda, e não por receitas Impostos funcionam para criar uma necessidade de dólares, para que o governo pode usar dólares para comprar bens e serviços reais Borrowing funções para permitir excesso de dólares criado por gastos deficitários para ganhar uma taxa positiva De interesse Os déficits não representam nenhum risco de financiamento, uma vez que a necessidade de empréstimo ocorre somente após o gasto e apenas para sustentar e manter uma taxa de juros desejada. As taxas de juros e os preços estão sujeitos ao controle exógeno pelo emissor da moeda. Paradigma Governo orçamentação assume o paradigma de que os dólares devem ser levantados através de tributação ou empréstimos para financiar despesas a preços de mercado O monopolista o governo decidiu deixar as forças de mercado preço de seu produto dólares Portanto, deve limitar a quantidade de gastos para manter suficiente desemprego e excesso de capacidade Para evitar um declínio no valor da inflação de seu produto. O desemprego é defi Isto ocorre quando o setor privado, em conjunto, deseja trabalhar e ganhar a unidade monetária de conta, mas não deseja gastar tudo o que ganharia se totalmente empregado. A teoria monetária keynesiana revela a essência do desemprego involuntário. Seu termo endogeneidade radical afirma que todos os depósitos são os registros contábeis dos empréstimos e o dinheiro do depósito só existe em conjunto com empréstimos bancários pendentes. Se, portanto, no setor privado um agente deseja aumentar suas participações De ativos financeiros líquidos, esse desejo só pode ser satisfeito pela redução de outras propriedades de um agente. Os ativos financeiros líquidos de um agente são reduzidos sempre que o agente aumenta sua dívida, ou reduz seu estoque de ativos financeiros Net Os ativos financeiros são aumentados pelo pagamento da dívida ou pelo aumento do estoque atual Na ausência de intervenção financeira do governo, se um agente deseja emprego Para aumentar suas propriedades de ativos financeiros, outro deve decidir reduzir seus ativos financeiros líquidos para que uma transação aconteça. Se nenhum agente está disposto a reduzir seus ativos financeiros líquidos, a venda desejada de trabalho não ocorre. Isto é definido como involuntário Desemprego. O sistema de contabilidade de contabilidade de dupla contabilidade nacional está sempre em equilíbrio As entradas em um lado do razão deve ser contabilizado com entradas de compensação no outro Investimento, por exemplo, é contabilizado como poupança na contabilidade de renda nacional, por isso, por definição, O investimento total será sempre igual a economias totais. A despesa do déficit público é classificada como desvalorização do governo e a entrada contábil compensatória é um aumento na economia nominal líquida do setor privado. Assim, sempre que o governo se envolver em gastos deficitários, Nfa, incluindo participações offshore de activos denominados em dólares. Além disso, o nível de Sector privado H nfa Se o sector privado pretender aumentar a sua H nfa, este desejo só pode ser satisfeito por um aumento das despesas públicas deficitárias. O desemprego pode, portanto, ser resumido da seguinte forma: O desemprego voluntário é prova de que a H nfa desejada do sector privado Excede o real H nfa permitido pela política fiscal do governo. Para ser franco, o desemprego involuntário existe porque o déficit orçamentário federal é muito pequeno. Além disso, se um agente quer vender quaisquer bens reais e, assim, aumentar a sua H nfa, isso também só pode Se a H nfa desejada for maior do que a H nfa real, a evidência é acumulação de inventário involuntária e um viés contracionista. H nfa, Demanda Agregada e Oferta Agregada. A compreensão de que o desemprego é evidência de O défice orçamental é demasiado pequeno é consistente com o conceito padrão de oferta e procura agregada A procura agregada é a soma de todas as despesas, e A oferta agregada é a soma de todos os bens e serviços oferecidos para venda. Pode-se então afirmar que se o setor privado quisesse usar parte de sua renda de emprego total obtida vendendo bens e serviços reais como H nfa, Combinação de acumulação involuntária de inventário e desemprego involuntário O desemprego involuntário é assim rastreado até uma H nfa desejada que exceda a H nfa real. A abordagem agregada de oferta e procura permite que as alterações da H nfa desejada sejam expressas como uma mudança na procura agregada ou uma mudança na Oferta agregada A abordagem H nfa concentra-se apenas na variável de controlo desejada H nfa - independentemente da oferta agregada ou da procura agregada ser excessiva ou deficiente De facto, pode sempre ser impossível distinguir uma insuficiência na procura agregada de um excesso Agregado, tornando a distinção desnecessária. A política de 12.500 preços de renda limitada. A política de ELR proposta e sua versão de Oyment ea estabilidade de preços são uma extensão lógica do paradigma correto de uma moeda de imposto driven Desde que o setor privado precisa do governo s gastos para pagar impostos, governo restrição do tamanho do salário ELR, em vez de restrição da quantidade de dólares que gasta , Resulta em uma forma de estabilidade de preços H nfa pode ser determinada diretamente pelo setor privado, uma vez que decide a quantidade total de trabalho ELR que vende para o setor público O governo define o salário ELR e permite que o mercado alocar todos os outros recursos em conformidade Este é O mesmo processo que determina o valor relativo sob um padrão-ouro. Na proposta de ELR, o governo ajusta a política fiscal e monetária para manter o pool ELR da mesma forma que um governo ajusta a política fiscal e monetária para manter um estoque intermediário de ouro com ouro A estabilidade de preço sob uma política ELR é similar àquela sob uma política de rendimentos Com uma política de rendimentos, no entanto, um orçamento ainda é alvo, por isso é un Um déficit muito pequeno resultará em desemprego. Um déficit muito grande será inflacionário e 1 reduzirá o padrão de vida relativo dos sujeitos à política de renda, 2 introduzir incentivos para violar o salário e a produtividade Leis e 3 em geral criam um debate social emocionalmente carregado que resulta em uma série de soluções politicamente determinadas. A proposta do ELR estabelece um padrão de salário mínimo, uma vez que o governo está disposto a empregar qualquer pessoa no salário do ELR. Os empregados reconhecem que os trabalhadores do ELR podem substituí-los, embora o custo para o empregador dependa das qualificações e da formação Necessário para realizar a tarefa que o empregador deseja. Desta forma, emerge uma escala salarial nominal. O valor da moeda é o salário ELR, É o que o governo, o fornecedor do monopólio de seu dinheiro, decidiu que pagará Outros salários estão sujeitos às forças de mercado. O salário inicial de ELR pode ser ajustado em todo o nível enquanto as forças de mercado alinharão todos os outros salários e preços Para minimizar a ruptura, O salário inicial do ELR deve ser aquele que não seja tão alto como para atrair os trabalhadores para fora do setor privado, e não tão baixo como para exigir uma deflação geral para trazer H nfa real em linha com a H nfa desejada. Por exemplo, se o salário ELR O aumento da receita líquida seria suficiente para atrair trabalhadores do setor privado, haveria um ajuste único. Os gastos públicos líquidos aumentariam à medida que os trabalhadores do ELR fossem adicionados à folha de pagamento do governo. rise from the higher paying ELR jobs Businesses would then have to pay more, both to replace lost workers and to retain their other workers Prices would rise as both costs and incomes were being pushed up The converse holds if th e ELR wage is set too low This would be evidenced by a slowdown in sales as private sector income was insufficient to realize a desired H nfa and purchase the output of business Increasing inventories would lead to layoffs and downward pressure on the price of labor Eventually, more workers would find their way to ELR jobs and government spending would rise At some point prices would stabilize in line with the ELR wage 12,500 per year was selected as the ELR wage for this proposal This is a bit higher than the current minimum wage and might result in a small one time upward adjustment in the price level My bias was to err slightly on the high side, rather than risk an initial deflation. Under the ELR program, changes in desired H nfa result in, and are evidenced by, equal changes in actual H nfa For example, if the private sector desire for H nfa increases, involuntary unemployment that would occur in the absence of an ELR policy will, instead, result in additional labor being sold to t he government for 12,500 per year This increases government spending and the deficit, allowing actual H nfa to increase to the level desired by the private sector In other words, if the deficit increases by 50 billion, that number, by definition, matches the private sector s desire to net save financial assets The currency, meanwhile, remains defined by the labor that can be purchased for 12,500 Furthermore, not providing the desired H nfa , and letting unemployment remain at current levels, would define a deflationary and contractionary bias. Conversely, if desired H nfa decreases, perhaps due to increased non-ELR government spending or behavioral changes in the private sector, an opposite bias is introduced The government will begin to lose its 12,500 workers to higher paying jobs in the private sector This reduces government spending It could also increase tax liabilities, further reducing net spending H nfa is thereby reduced, until it matches the H nfa desired by the private sector If fiscal policy is such that all of the 12,500 government workers are hired by the private sector, then the market price of ELR labor has risen beyond 12,500, and the currency has been redefined downward accordingly It is the equivalent of the government losing its buffer stock of gold under a gold standard Additionally, unlike gold, non-homogeneous labor means that as the pool of ELR workers shrinks, the remaining ELR workers would be increasingly less valuable to the private sector, and the currency may begin to get redefined downward at an increasing rate Indeed, if the remaining ELR workers have no value to the private sector, continued shrinkage of the ELR pool may be impossible, and government spending increases or tax cuts designed to reduce the size of the ELR pool might result only in a devaluation of the currency To regain control of prices, the government could act to offset the reduced desired private sector H nfa directly and restore the ELR pool to a desired level by cu tting spending or raising taxes It could also attempt to indirectly raise desired H nfa , by changing interest rates introducing tax advantaged savings plans, etc Such efforts would be designed to trigger a deflationary private sector slowdown that would result in a reduced demand for private sector workers above the 12,500 ELR wage, and workers finding their way back to the 12,500 ELR payroll If this were deemed too disruptive, the same fiscal constraint could be matched with an increase of the ELR wage, say, to 15,000 per year This would redefine the currency downward to that level - presumably the perceived market level that wages had gone to at that time Prices would stabilize around the new benchmark as desired H nfa and actual H nfa correspond to a desired buffer stock of 15,000 ELR workers The question of the appropriate size of this pool of workers would be somewhat analogous to the current debate over the current natural rate of unemployment. The ELR can be considered a labor st andard policy that continuously defines the value of a dollar by the quality of ELR labor that can be hired at a given price Since labor is not homogeneous, the value of the dollar will, by definition, fluctuate with the quality of the labor that 12,500 purchases This carries an implied cyclical tendency towards increasing money value during periods of private sector increases in desired H nfa , and vice versa For example, layoffs in the private sector would result in additional 12,500 government workers of higher quality than the existing pool This would enhance the investment environment for foreigners as well as domestics, as better workers could be hired for the same nominal wage Also, any increase in the attractiveness of the ELR pool, such as a higher level of education, would both increase the purchasing power of the currency and increase the value of the currency in the foreign exchange markets A well thought out ELR plan would include a well-organized program to educate, upgra de skills, and make productive use of ELR workers. This type of fluctuation of the quality of the labor available for 12,500 technically constitutes price instability, as the currency is being constantly redefined at the margin by the quality of the best worker in the pool This does not, however, necessarily represent an increase in price volatility of goods and services over the current system which uses a pool of unemployed, i e the concept of a natural rate of unemployment, to stabilize prices Nor does it imply that the resulting price instability due, for example, to an increase in the general level of education, is undesirable. Defining the dollar by the ELR labor that can be purchased at the margin does not mean all prices will be constant forever To the contrary, all other prices, including asset prices, will be constantly changing as the market allocates via price Only one price, the ELR wage, has been used to define the currency All other prices result as the forces of supply an d demand settle on nominal prices that reflect a value relative to the ELR wage and continuous full employment. Most proposed incomes policies extend government regulation into the private sector, requiring, for example, documentation that wage increases not exceed productivity increases The proposed ELR program, however, recognizes that it is only necessary to constrain the prices the government, itself, pays By allowing the private sector to realize desired H nfa through the market process, market forces will link wages to productivity For example, an available-for-hire pool of ELR workers means private sector employers will not be forced by shortages of unskilled labor to increase wages More productive employees will be able to command a higher wage, though general productivity increases by business will not result in higher wages if a given job can be performed equally well by a 12,500 ELR worker. This program does not necessarily defeat the real business or inventory cycle It does u se the proposed 12,500 public service job to absorb fluctuations of private sector employment, allowing the private sector to achieve its desired H nfa on a continuous basis This neutralizes any monetary system bias implied currently by a government policy that does not allow actual H nfa to match desired H nfa. ELR V S Unemployment Compensation. The value of a currency is determined by what the government demands the private sector must do or sell to obtain it Unemployment compensation is payment for not working If everyone could simply stay home and collect a government check, not be stigmatized, and thereby obtain all currency necessary to pay all taxes due, the currency would have no value Therefore, under current policy unemployment compensation must be limited, temporary, and an insufficient source of revenue for the private sector to meet its tax obligations and desired H nfa. The ELR program, on the other hand, requires the employee, at a minimum, to sell his time The ELR program therefore need not be limited, as the currency will maintain its value regardless of the quantity of ELR spending The value of the currency will equal the effort necessary to earn the ELR wage. Past Attempts at Government Sponsored Full Employment. With a private sector desire for H nfa , and a government that fails to run a deficit large enough to accommodate that desire, the corresponding unemployment can be severe It may eventually be reduced by a reduction in desired H nfa because of lower interest rates, or, as some contend, by falling wages However, the time necessary to test this hypothesis is usually beyond human tolerance, and the pragmatic view of government employment arises. For example, from 1931 to 1941 unemployment averaged well over 10 the definition of a depression It hit a high of 24 9 in 1933, and was still 14 6 as late as 1940 GNP reached a high of 203 6 billions of 1958 dollars in 1929 fell to a low of 141 5 in 1933, and by 1939, had crept up only to 209 4 Low interes t rates were not enough to decrease desired H nfa Short term Treasury securities reached a high of just over 5 in May of 1929, were cut to the mid 3 range in November 1929 following the stock market crash, and were as low as about 0 5 by September 1931 Rates were increased to about 2 5 until May of 1932, and then remained well under 1 until 1948 Continuous low interest rates also did not seem to result in run-away asset prices The Dow equity index price did not recover to its 1929 highs until 1958, the 1927 highs were not reached until 1946, and the low of 1930 was not surpassed until 1936.In 1933, after several years of undesirable unemployment and depressed GNP, the Public Works Administration, the first public works program, was enacted It was followed by the WPA in 1935 It is noteworthy that these programs did not come about until after several years of troubling unemployment, and fell short of solving the unemployment crisis and ending the depression Work relief never reached more than 40 of the unemployed, and only 3 million of the 9 million unemployed participated in the WPA The reason these programs were constrained was the reluctance to engage in government deficit spending During the 1930 s, in spite of the high unemployment and depressed growth, budget balancing was never far from the forefront of political purpose Belief in a balanced budget prevented government relief programs from ending the depression, and when Roosevelt honored his 1936 campaign pledge to balance the budget in 1937, the economy suffered a major setback with unemployment jumping back to 19 1 from a seven year low of 14 3 Public works programs that were paid for by other spending cuts or by tax increases could not reduce unemployment as there was never enough net government spending to accommodate desired H nfa The largest deficit of the 1930 s was 5 9 of GNP in 1934, and it was down to 0 1 of GNP by 1938 The U S was on a gold standard, and policy had to include managing the national g old supply This led to various extremes such as suspending domestic convertibility in 1934, and making it illegal for domestics to own gold, as well as strong support for balancing the federal budget. During WWII, a radically different approach was initiated Government spending exceeded tax collections in 1942, 1943,1944, and 1945 by 14 5 , 31 1 , 23 6 , and 22 4 of GNP respectively Unemployment was under 2 by 1943, and output increased from 209 4 billions of 1958 dollars to 337 1 by 1943 Prices were fixed, and government planning agents from the Office of Price Administration enacted rationing Great effort was taken to ensure that rationing was perceived as equitable ensuring public support for the program Patriotism kept Americans from black markets that may have otherwise drained resources needed for the war effort, and patriotism also became associated with nominal savings The idea was to get desired H nfa up to the level of deficit spending in a low interest rate environment In oth er words, hoarding of dollar denominated financial assets via government bond purchases was encouraged, allowing the government to purchase up to 60 of the real output without price competition from consumers The desire of the American public to earn money and not spend it, which caused the unemployment of the previous decade, now dovetailed well with the public sector demands for war production, and unemployment was, for all practical purposes, eliminated. Foreign Trade. Transactions of real goods and services between those within the geographical confines of the U S and anyone outside the U S are generally defined as foreign trade Exports are real goods and services leaving the country, and imports are real goods and services entering the country By standard definition, exports are a real cost, and imports are a real benefit Exports can be considered the cost of imports Financial transactions are accounting information, and not considered as imports or exports. The chronic U S trade def icit, for example, means the dollar price of imports continually exceeds the dollar price of exports This puts increasing numbers of dollars in the hands of non-U S residents who have decided to hold dollar denominated financial assets rather than use their dollars to buy U S goods This is an identity, for, if they did buy U S goods, there would not be a trade deficit As holders of dollar denominated financial assets, they are net nominal savers, much like any domestic holder of dollar denominated financial assets For purposes of this analysis, foreign dollar denominated financial holdings are considered part of H nfa. Currently, most of the world allows currencies to trade freely Occasionally the major central banks will intervene in the foreign exchange markets, and buy or sell one currency versus another for a variety of reasons and motivations However, most central banks are not legally bound to guarantee convertibility of their home currency to another currency at predetermined rat es Exceptions include a few currency board systems as Argentina and Hong Kong Should a foreign holder of dollar denominated financial assets desire to switch to another currency, he must find, in the market place, another agent who wishes to be his counter party If a transaction does occur, the dollar denominated financial assets will change hands but not increase or diminish The exchange rate will likely fluctuate, but the quantity of dollar denominated financial assets remains unchanged Dollar H nfa is not changed by foreign exchange transactions that do not involve the Federal Reserve acting for its own account. The desired H nfa of the foreign sector is a factor since it is part of the total desired H nfa A declining dollar in the foreign exchange markets becomes indicative, again by definition, of decreasing desired H nfa of the foreign sector agents, and vice versa The number of 12,500 public service employees under the ELR employment proposal will fluctuate with changes in the de sired H nfa of the foreign sector as well as the domestic sector It is total desired H nfa that controls the number of these public service workers Increased government deficits that arise when the pool of 12,500 ELR workers increases always match the desired H nfa of the entire non-government sector The dollar remains defined by the available workers, so changes in the value of the dollar in the foreign exchange markets must be a function of the quality of the ELR labor available for 12,500 and the changing value of the other currency. This understanding allows policy makers the option of taking advantage of the benefits of being a net importer For example, an increase in net imports that results in the loss of private domestic employment will immediately result in an increase in the number of government 12,500 workers This increases government spending and the budget deficit which may result in other industries hiring workers away from the government If the pool of 12,500 ELR workers is deemed by the electorate to be too large, taxes can be cut or public spending increased until the number drops to the desired level The public would associate higher trade deficits with an increasing standard of living, lower taxes, and other such benefits. A fixed exchange rate would present problems similar the gold standard since the gold standard is, for all practical purposes, a fixed exchange rate system If the Federal Reserve was committed to convert dollars to other currencies, a larger budget deficit or trade deficit could result in the rapid depletion of the Fed s foreign currency reserves, forcing the suspension of convertibility and a return to a market system. Interest Rates and Employment. Anyone who lives entirely on his interest income may otherwise need employment Such rentiers have removed themselves from the labor force To the extent that higher real rates increase the rentier population, potential output is reduced Furthermore, those left working are, in real terms, supporting those living on interest income. The concept of scarce jobs has led to a variety of programs designed to reduce the work force to limit unemployment These include child labor laws, education for veterans, aid for single mothers, and even social security These programs were ultimately unsuccessful at reducing unemployment, no matter how many potential participants they eliminated, as a given percentage of unemployed became a tool to limit price and wage increases The real result of reducing the labor force is reduced output. Lower real interest rates will tend to keep more individuals in need of employment Combined with a well run ELR policy, low rates should increase output dramatically with much of the increased output being investment It may be possible, for example, to repair, rebuild, enhance and maintain the public infrastructure without a decrease in private consumption from current levels. It is widely assumed that deficit spending to hire unemployed workers carries at least two risks - inflation and funding The inflation risk comes from the failure to understand exogenous pricing It is feared that deficit spending will cause an implied upward bias on labor costs from both the aggregate demand created by the deficit spending, and the elimination of the competition of the unemployed for available jobs The result is an anti-inflation policy that requires excess capacity in the private sector to keep market prices from rising This includes the need to maintain a pool of unemployed to discourage wages from rising The second perceived risk, funding, comes from the widely held misconception that the government must be able to fund itself to carry on spending The government is, therefore, concerned not only with how the market will receive the debt it believes it needs to sell in order to fund itself, but also concerned that there may be a market determined funding limit Until these perceptions change, a pool of unemployed workers will be necessary to contai n inflation, and deficit spending will be resisted. The Keynesian mainstream proposes ending unemployment by increasing aggregate demand through low interest rates and increased deficit spending To offset the inflation risk inherent in this policy many Keynesians propose various government legislated incomes policies These require the direct government regulation of private sector wages, usually attempting to link wages with productivity This has been rejected by the electorate, who seem to prefer the excess capacity approach to price stability. The proposed ELR program recognizes that the government is a monopoly supplier of its currency Price is set through the ELR wage, which defines the purchasing power of the currency Further recognized is that deficit spending poses no financial solvency risk to the government. The government, as employer of last resort, is not a new concept What prevented such policies from being viable and sustainable in the past the gold standard and other fixed exchange rate policies - are long gone We currently have a monetary system that can accommodate both full employment and price stability on a permanent basis. This ELR proposal is a logical extension of Keynesian and Post - Keynesian thought Endogenous money is already deeply rooted, and the idea that an incomes policy need only be practiced by the government with its ELR wage should not pose any philosophical barriers Nor should classical economists and their offspring be entirely against such an ELR program If they are correct, there would eventually be an equilibrium condition with the ELR pool dwindling to 0.The Author is a partner in the Investment Firm Adams, Viner and Mosler, and wishes to acknowledge the help of the following alphabetical order. Shannon Cox Paul Davidson Betty Rose Factor Mathew Forstater Charles Goodhart Daniel Seymour Pavlina Tcherneva Frederick Thayer L Randall Wray. Warren B Mosler February 2, 1997.The measure of actual inflationary pressure is the unemployment rate This takes inflation to means demand side inflation, i e effective demand outrunning the capacity of the economy to expand in order to accomodate it. So, when unemployment is pretty high, inflationary pressures are pretty low, and when unemployment is a little lower, inflationary pressures are a little higher, and when unemployment is really low, but not 0, inflationary pressures are quite strong. Sounds like the Phillips curve to me Not at all like price stability at full employment. And in WWII I wasn t there, but I heard there were black markets with much higher prices than what the rationing boards set. Tom Hickey Reply September 15th, 2011 at 10 13 pm. According to the MMT narrative its not a linear relationship Inflationary pressure does not occur while the economy is expanding to accomodate increasing demand. And in WWII I wasn t there, but I heard there were black markets with much higher prices than what the rationing boards set. Overall, Americans cooperated with needs of the d ay for shared sacrifice, and they also bought war bonds. John O Connell Reply September 16th, 2011 at 11 26 pm. I replied once already, but I don t see it Must have done something wrong. According to the MMT narrative its not a linear relationship. The Phillips Curve is not linear either I guess that s why it s not called the Phillips Line. Inflationary pressure does not occur while the economy is expanding to accomodate increasing demand. To me, that sounds exactly equivalent to saying that there can be no inflation when the economy is at less than full employment With idle capacity, increasing demand brings forth increasing supply, and that is expansion But Warren objects to that terminology Perhaps you can explain the difference. Back to WWII, I agree the entire population supported the war effort and generally cooperated with the rationing However, the government-set price was not the market price Market prices for rationed goods rose, due to the shortages. If I were in charge I could crea te what would be called high inflation and high unemployment if I wanted to. John O Connell Reply September 18th, 2011 at 6 54 am. If I were in charge I could create what would be called high inflation and high unemployment if I wanted to. You mean, like the 70 s Stagflation. Please expand on that idea How would you do it And then, how would you stop it, or each one independently. putting up a post on Buckaroos for Monday which may help on all this, thanks. Back to 23, if the banana republics had debt denominated in someone else s currency, their experiences are irrelevant to theory of fiat. I ll have to go back and find what I thought was said, but for now. What is monetary inflation vs what s called inflation I know we have run out of words, generally, so we reuse them sometimes to mean different things, but in a technical discussion can t we stick to one meaning per word. John O Connell Reply September 14th, 2011 at 6 55 pm. In a response to a reader question in the 7DIF section of this web s ite, you said. DEFICIT SPENDING ADDS INCOME AND SAVINGS TO THE PRIVATE SECTOR IF THIS EXACTLY OFFSETS PRIVATE SAVINGS DESIRES, THERE IS NO INFLATION. And I glean from all the math in 7DIF and elsewhere, that a government deficit that exactly offsets private savings desires will result exactly in full employment, as unemployment is the direct result of private sector savings. Therefore, whenever there is unemployment, it is because the deficit is smaller than the desired private sector savings, and no inflation can result from that either In fact, the deficit could even be increased so as to match desired private sector savings, and cause NO INFLATION. yes, in that context of that discussion on what mmt would consider monetary policy. Said levels of aggregate demand employment would not cause inflation, which is a continuous increase in the price level caused by continuous excess demand. this is not to say there would not be relative value shifts, and related one time adjustments in prices th at would show up in CPI which has become synonymous with inflation. John O Connell Reply September 15th, 2011 at 8 22 pm. continuous increase in the price level caused by continuous excess demand. How long is continuous Nothing last forever, including excess demand Do you mean something that is not a temporary spike that is reversed in a short while. relative value shifts that would show up in CPI. They shouldn t, if CPI is done properly Seems to me if there are two goods in the economy, apples and oranges, in equal amounts, and apples go up 10 and oranges go down 10 , CPI should not change If it does, then it is flawed. When it stops being continuous it stops being inflation in that context. John O Connell Reply September 16th, 2011 at 11 12 pm. There s no reply button on your last statement, so I ll use this one. When it stops being continuous it stops being inflation in that context. Then, once again, how long is continuous When prices rise continuously from 1980 to 2008, and then decline for one month in 2009, does that mean there was no inflation from 1980 to 2008.Or is 28 years long enough, but 28 months is not long enough to be called continuous. Or, is your point that the CAUSE of the rise in prices must be continuous excess demand , or else the rise in prices is not inflation. the period of continous price and wage increases can be called a period of inflation under the most common definitions in the texts. this is all about how the mainstream defines inflation. just an fyi, mmt covers the operational reality of both convertible and non convertible currency. for me, monetary inflation is inflation that comes from excess monetary demand as per what s called monetary and fiscal policy, and including private sector credit creation which is an offshoot of public policy as well. other inflations include those from the likes of oil price hikes by those with market power they are generally through the cost side, though interest rate policy works through the cost side as well. so w hen opec hiked crude from 2 to 40 over 10 years due to their market power prices would have gone up whether unemployment was at 3 or 10 , for example. John O Connell Reply September 15th, 2011 at 8 16 pm. Excess monetary demand, not supply. So, again with the CPI, I gather you don t think it accurately represents average prices, but is biased by overweighting goods that are rising in price, and underweighting goods that are falling. Even if oil went up, and all the things it directly affects went up, would we not both reduce consumption of oil and the related stuff and reduce consumption of non-oil assuming 0 elasticity of demand 1 for it all And would not reduced consumption of the other stuff tend to put downward pressure on their prices And prices on average, if the average were properly calculated, would not change Unless more money were injected into the system to try to accommodate continued consumption of the other stuff even in the face of the higher oil price. Is it only a flawed C PI and GDP deflator, then, that makes us believe there is monetary inflation when there is not, really. I didn t say that about CPI. And you are missing my point on why i distinguish between price increases vs inflation. The distinction is to help show why my proposed policy responses to inflation vary. Unforgiven Reply September 15th, 2011 at 11 56 pm. An interesting post on the subject. should read, most recent cpi increases. and most cpi spikes in the US since 11970 have been oil driven best i can recall. John O Connell Reply September 14th, 2011 at 10 52 am. But there are never oil-driven deflation spikes, when oil drops 70 over the course of 16 years, or 60 in a few weeks Inflation moderates following the bursting of oil bubbles, but never goes below 0 The inflation spikes associated with oil prices take inflation from 2-3 up to 6-10 , and when the oil spike ends the inflation spike ends, and inflation goes back down to 2-3 Never 0 Never price stability There is something else at work besi des oil And, acording to MMT, it is not the money supply and not the deficit What is it Public sector wages where is that data As a State employee now, I am painfully aware that my public sector wage is nowhere near what I was getting in the private sector, nor is it rising or likely to rise while I m here My longer-tenured colleagues have not had raises in 12 years So, I guess, like the rest of MMT terminology, public sector refers only to the Federal government. Tom Hickey Reply September 14th, 2011 at 11 44 am. I suspect, and IIRC Warren has stated, a portion of these effects are due to saving by the ownership class that goes into commodities as a new asset class, especially recently, thanks to Wall Street engineering think Goldman The advent of ETF s has also brought the public into an area that was previously occupied almost exclusively by professionals. For example, available storage space for petro is rented out, including idle tankers Farmland, too, has become an asset class I liv e in Iowa and am aware that farmland has been rising in price It is up 33 on the year today, according to the morning paper in Iowa City Contrastingly, there was a companion article saying how the fact that young people are living with parents is reducing demand Anyone living in Iowa knows that the reason that food prices are rising in the face of lower US demand is that Iowa agribusiness is selling into the international market where demand is hot and also supplying the ethanol industry Coupled with high prices for diesel fuel and go figure on food prices BTW there is very little wage labor in farming anymore in Iowa, since it is all mechanized, and immigrants do the meat packing. In recoveries, the first price level to rise is assets, since it is the ownership class that has the money and also borrows to leverage, the goods, then wages Generally, TPTB don t consider inflation until price level begins to effect workers enough to agitate for higher wages But inflation begins with assets affecting vitals like energy and food and this begins to get passed through. Interestingly, oil prices fell from a high of almost 150 to nearly 30 in the pull back, but quickly recovered to the 70-80 range and then rose to the 90-110 range This was significant because at the time the stim was designed the price of oil was way down The subsequent rise in price gobbled up the stim. cpi does drop to 0 and go negative from time to time, but point taken that the trend is generally up some. Yes, public sector wages for this particular purpose was meant to be Federal. And public sector wages tend to be ratchets, adjusting up with cpi, but not going down when cpi is negative, though as you state this is rare in any case. Also, there is some evidence inflation follows the interest rate set by the Fed, which makes sense, as when the fed pays interest, it is turning a given amount of dollars into more dollars But I can t quantify that for you - just a hunch. beowulf Reply September 17th, 2011 at 2 21 a m. Warren Mosler , Well, to link to Brad DeLong, commenting on Paul Krugman, who cites Larry Summers did someone forget to add Marty Feldstein and Greg Mankiw to the cc list who quotes JM Keynes Keynes referred to the strong positive correlation between nominal interest rates and the price level, which he called Gibson s Paradox, as one of the most completely established empirical facts in the whole field of quantitative economics. true, just like we always used to use the cb s short term interest rate to forecast M2 growth in the old days. depends on how you define inflation. and all the great latin american inflations were in the context of very high unemployment. John O Connell Reply September 14th, 2011 at 10 38 am. You defined inflation twice within the past few posts That definition is fine with me I think it is the one MMT has in mind when it states that inflation cannot occur unless there is full employment. I remember when we used to call them banana republics , referring to their infl ation, which I recall as being more like Weimar than like the US I don t know the details of their monetary history very well, though Were they on a fiat system, with flexible exchange rates Were their economies strong to begin with, and did they pursue reasonable fiscal and monetary policies. In the late 1970 s even the US had relatively high unemployment along with relatively high inflation Stagflation , they called it I suppose one can blame that on oil shocks , and not have to account for such conditions in a more general theory Were the Latin countries subject to such financial cataclysms when they had high unemployment along with high even hiper - inflation. Deos any of this discussion of abberant conditions change the MMT assertion Or explain the incidence of inflation under a fiat regime that chooses to use persistent unemployment to dampen aggregate demand. I never said inflation cannot occur unless there is full employment. I may have said something about monetary inflation from e xcess demand not being a problem at less than full employment. And yes, you can get what s called inflation from things other than excess aggregate demand, as you state. And the banana republic local currency inflations were usually were characterized by substantial dollar debt followed by selling their local currency to get the dollars to service the debt, and or the ruling class getting heaps of local currency for themselves via various means and then selling that for dollars This all tended to drive the local currency down with inflation flooding in through the fx window The, to keep domestic tranquility, they indexed govt wages to some inflation measure which fueled the inflationary spiral as well. In fact, last I read all the great latin am inflations were traced to said indexation. I can t cut and paste the chart here, but it s chart 2 at. It s the year-over-year percent change in CPI, unadjusted. Starts out in July 2010 at just over 1 Flat for a few months, then a steady rise to 3 6 , where it is stuck for the last 3 months. Excluding food and energy, it was under 1 a year ago, now is 1 8 , similarly shaped curve. The table following the graph says energy is up 19 yoy, though. Longer term, CPI is 225 of what it was in 1982-4 There were no yoy declines during those 28 years, and oil went from about 30 in 1982-4 to 12 in 1999 It is evident from long-term charts of oil and CPI that the rate of increase of CPI was moderated by oil price declines, which would support your contention that oil is very important As you say, it directly impacts transportation costs, which impacts the cost of everything that gets transported, as well as the cost of transporting ourselves around However, it is also clear that something else is causing prices in general to rise, even over periods of many years when the price of oil is dropping dramatically I don t think you can say that most of that CPI increase was caused by oil All of the increase from 1983 to 1999 was caused by something other than oil, and occurred despite a 60 or so drop in the price of oil over that time. Just looking at 1983 to 1999, Monetarists and Keynsians both have a ready explanation for the empirical data MMT would seem to say that it was not possible to have inflation during this time, with falling oil prices and less than full employment I would like to think that MMT is the proper explanation of how our modern world works if not, we are well and truly you know what, in 2-4 years , but I can t reconcile this. understood look at the annual increase in public sector compensation, including increases for the likes of social security. a public sector pay increase for the same work is a redefinition of the currency downward as described in my papers. also you have to look at the composition of cpi it s more about cost of living rising than inflation. MamMoTh Reply September 12th, 2011 at 11 29 pm. isn t that a bit of a chicken egg explanation. it seems to me increases in public sector compensation and socia l security are based on CPI or wage increases. and cost of living is the part of inflation most people are really concerned about. Inflation itself isn t about what s right or wrong, or about what people are concerned about. Inflation is defined as a continuous rise in the price level, whatever that might mean, and not a shift in relative value or an increase in a specific basket of goods and services. so if the peaches die, and there are fewer peaches, and the price goes up reflecting the lower quantity being allocated to the highest bidders, that s a relative value shift and not inflation. if, however, the gov somehow increases everyone s purchasing power so they have the funds to afford the same quantity of peaches, all that happens is the price goes up further And if that policy is continuous, the result is a relative value story turns into an inflation story. Unforgiven Reply September 13th, 2011 at 2 23 am. Is this a prices adjusting due to the rise of the middle class kind of thing. Aft er all, the rich can eat only so many peaches. ELR sounds like a good thing to me, but I am concerned what the ELR workers would be doing You seem to think that there is always plenty of work to be done, like on a farm, but if that is true why has the government not hired people to do it already. And once ELR workers are in place and doing it, if it is useful work, then what happens when they get hired away Who does this work in their absence, and why would we not suffer for lack of it. Mario Reply September 8th, 2011 at 1 25 pm. I d also like to hear what Warren says on this front. I ve heard Randall Wray talk about it being community based at non-profits, health clinics, red cross centers, community initiatives clean-up, beautification, maintenance, etc There is much that can be done at the community level and those people down on the ground there know what s best and can marshal things accordingly The federal government just writes the paycheck for them. It s really a great idea imho and small govt community folks would love it. There is always more than can be done to help our communities And this is a positive feed-back loop mechanism within the community since it will take in under-privileged people, train them, pay them, and help them progress up to wherever they want to go, which in turn helps the community, etc. It s all about creating systemic feed-back loops at every relative level of a community, state, federal, etc so that our very existence and participation in society has exponential benefits to that same society Currently it appears we are seeing the effects of a negative feed-back loop which essentially is what a deflationary spiral trap is plus de-regulation corruption in DC. yes, national service type jobs in general and yes, people will be coming and going all the time, so it s not all that efficient but far better than today s treatment of the unemployed who both do no useful work while unemployed and find it almost impossible to get private sector emplo yment once they ve been unemployed for a while. so the main public purpose is a transition job to help the unemployed move back into the private sector at the same time, hopefully a lot of useful work can be done, and we will also have a superior price anchor for the monetary system. Tom Hickey Reply September 8th, 2011 at 4 15 pm. The efficiency shows up not in the individual jobs but through the effect on the economy as a whole It is an investment program with a big payback A training program should also be included that upgrades knowledge and skills, adding value For a lot of chronically unemployed this is way out of the labyrinth in which there there is no cheese at the end of any of the tunnels other than those involving crime. I am thinking of an ELR without a gold standard. I see both the gold standard and ELR as the price anchor for the general price level. But I can t see why interest rates would be market determined with a gold standard, but could be set by the Fed with the ELR pol icy. MamMoTh Reply June 17th, 2011 at 5 58 pm. I will try to answer myself. In the case of a fixed exchange, the government offers to competing financial assets in order to satisfy net savings desires, and since it sets the exchange rate between them, the interest rate on one must be market determined. In the case of the ELR there is no such competition so the government can set the interest rate, and the only alternative the marginal holder of the currency has is to spend it. The gov is only offering to buy labor at a fixed price, not sell it. MamMoTh Reply June 18th, 2011 at 4 33 pm. OK, then by that logic if the government implemented a gold guarantee gold buyer of last resort instead of a gold standard it would be able to set the interest rate instead of letting the market determine it. It still looks to me the key point is that the marginal currency holder is not able to convert it back to something else at a fixed price, as I mentioned above. Yes, if gov just has a bid for gold or anythin g else it can set rates where it wants them. MamMoTh Reply June 19th, 2011 at 12 50 pm. This is interesting, it means a country could prevent its currency from appreciating against a foreign currency bidding for it and remain able to set interest rate what China wants , but the trouble comes from preventing it from depreciating like Argentina and Russia. the government is then fiscally and monetarily constrained to a policy that spends little enough on non-gold items, and adjusts interest rates, to maintain a desired buffer stock of gold The government must limit its non-gold spending to less than the demand for the currency created by taxation, so the excess demand for the currency is evidenced by gold sales to the government Excessive non-gold spending results in gold sales to the private sector. Isn t the interest rate in the case of a gold standard endogenous like in the general case of a fixed exchange rate What determines the interest rate What happens in the case of an ELR policy to the interest rate If it s not also endogenous, why. yes, rates are endogenous with any fixed fx regime and yes, that makes elr problematic as in a market economy fixing 2 prices is looking for trouble. see exchange rate policy and full employment. MamMoTh Reply June 17th, 2011 at 3 41 pm. I ve read it more than once The question is whether I am clever enough to fully understand its implications. The way I understand it is that under a gold standard the interest rate would be at the indifference level for the marginal currency holder to save it at that interest rate or convert it to gold. Is that right What is the equivalent with an ELR policy. Should we accept that with an ELR policy the government loses control of the interest rate which means that deficit do matter in terms of inflationary pressures. you got it re gold. an elr policy with a gold standard is problematic. but with today s floating fx the Fed sets the interest rate what marshall called the own rate some 200 years ago and the elr wage is the price anchor for the general price level. Several very interesting discussions. With respect to the ELR discussion. Government does employ Public Sector Employees The Ratio of Public Sector E mployees to Private Sector Employees has been growing for many years. The wages and benefits packages given to Public Sector Employees has been growing at a much higher rate than that of Private Sector Employees and in many cases the early retirements available to Pubic Sector Employees means that they work fewer years for greater benefits. The Government appears to be conducting what might be described as counter ELR policy to some extent by hiring too few at too high a cost while simultaneously demanding too much in Taxation from the Private Sector and or incurring enormous liabilities and deficits without achieving Price Stability or near Full Employment. On lending, interest and defaults. I d also like to know where the concepts of interest and default fits into your consideration of lending and monetary management. No matter how many loans are made there can never be enough money to pay back all of them with interest as the interest is not also created at origination Some amount of Loa ns can seemingly never be repaid in full - that is principal and interest - as the interest component does not exist having not been produced at origination of the loan This would seemingly make defaults an unavoidable component of the Debt Based Fiat monetary lending System. IF defaults are a healthy component of the Debt Based Fiat System then why would it not be healthy and stabilizing for Insolvent Banks to be forced to default and or be recapitalized via their Share and Bond Holders in lieu of Government Deficit Recapitalizations. I d appreciate it if You would offer or direct Me to previous discussion of your views on the issues of the providence of the funds for payment of interest and the necessity or lack of necessity of defaults in a Debt Based Fiat System. one man s interest payment is another man s income there s only a problem if total spending falls short of total income which happens all the time, as evidenced by unemployment, which is at the same time evidence that for the g iven size govt at the time, the economy is being over taxed. see the 7 deadly innocent frauds at this website thanks. Floccina You ask If you guarantee everyone a job how will you make people work on those jobs as you will not be able to threaten to fire them. Answer they are guaranteed a job in the sense that there is a job there for them, but not in the sense that they can sit around doing nothing or bash the supervisor on the head and get away with it I e I assume Warren s JG scheme would involve people being sacked for the sort of reasons that employees normally are sacked. Re your claim that oil prices ALONE cannot explain stagflation, I agree I cannot speak for the US, but in the UK there is a widespread feeling, with which I agree, that oil prices sparked off a wage price spiral Trade unions were much more powerful in the 1970s, and kept this spiral going. Re your claim that it would be better to replace the minimum wage with an hourly wage subsidy , I am actually finalising a pap er which argues very much this point Also Edmund Phelps advocated a subsidy of this sort a subsidy of all low paid labour See Rewarding Work How to Restore Participation and Self Support Harvard University Press. beowulf Reply November 29th, 2010 at 11 08 pm. Right, Edmund Phelps first proposal in the early 1990s called for a 3 00 an hour wage subsidy, tapering down for above minimum wage Adjusted for inflation, 3 00 in 1990 is 5 00 and hour now, let s see, in pound sterling that s to use current exchange rates 1 93 to 3 21 an hour now. Apparently in negative income tax pilot studies done in the early 1970s in the US and Canada, there was a reduction in work output ranging from 5 to 27 depending on the study and the analysis , Phelps edges around that issue by making it a wage subsidy added to paychecks so no wage no subsidy by the employer who is then credited on its own tax bill and its only for full-time workers not sure how Phelps plan treated unemployed or underemployed who are acti vely seeking more work hours Even with a wage subsidy, the minimum wage should still be indexed to keep up with inflation if not median wage growth or labor productivity otherwise employers are bound to use the wage subsidy to transfer more and more of their payroll cost to the govt over time the so-called Speenhamland Effect. with my proposal for an 8 hr job for anyone willing and able to work none of that is needed Just adjust the 8 as it suits public purpose. If you guarantee everyone a job how will you make people work on those jobs as you will not be able to threaten to fire them I think that it would be better to replace the minimum wage with an hourly wage subsidy. BTW do can you point me to any post-Keynesian writing that explains how we could have high inflation and high unemployment at the 1970s. zanon Reply November 24th, 2009 at 10 14 pm. Floccina There are a number of posts on the site regarding the 1970s I had the same question. The answer is that higher oil prices fed into hig her prices for everything Unlike rising prices for easily substitutable goods like bananas higher oil means higher everything. There were also a number of instruments and contracts that were linked to CPI, and those made inflation worse Just as the Govt has automatic stabilizers like unemployment benefits it also has automatic destabilizers like TIPS, SS payments, and any form of payment automatically linked to CPI. Also, aggregate demand was too low thus the unemployment There was nothing we could have done about the higher costs, but we could have run bigger deficits to reduce unemployment Cutting your real nose to spite your nominal face is a bad strategy, I guess. Floccina Reply November 25th, 2009 at 3 37 pm. Thank you Zanon, higher oil prices feeding into higher prices for everything could explain a little bout is it hard to believe that it was most of it because even at the height of its price, It seems to me that oil was too small a part of total expenditure to explain much of the inflation The move from US made to smaller foreign made auto in response to oil price along with the linking of the CPI to wages etc could explain much of the unemployment. zanon Reply November 25th, 2009 at 8 53 pm. Yes When you look at major elements of household net worth, you see that it is cars and houses I don t know what was happening to houses in the 70s although that is about the time mortgage securitization started , but if everyone changed cars, it would generate a big slug of AD. yes, the political choice could very well be continuous inflation, probably along the lines of today.
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